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Reports of JCM/BOCM Feasibility Studies: FY2012

Title of Study JCM/BOCM Feasibility Study
Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System
FYFY 2012
Main Implementing EntityMitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Study PartnersMarubeni Corporation, Transport Development and Strategy Institute (TDSI) of Vietnam, and Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Professor Tetsuro Hyodo
Location of Project/ActivityViet Nam (Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh), and Indonesia (Jakarta)
Category of Project/ActivityTransport
Study Report

Note: Preliminary drafts of MRV Methodology and Calculation Sheet are the result of the study. They have neither been officially approved, nor are guaranteed to be officially approved under the JCM/BOCM.
Description of Project/ActivityIntroduction of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system to the three cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) and Jakarta (Indonesia), which heavily rely on road-based transport systems such as motorcycles, automobiles, and buses, in order to reduce GHG emissions from such existing road transport systems through acceleration of the modal shift
Eligibility Criteria
  • A project intended to introduce a mass passenger transport system (e.g., MRT, BRT)
  • A project using or planning to use non-private foreign capital, in part or in whole, for introducing a transport system
Reference Scenario and Project/Activity BoundaryIn the reference scenario, existing transport modes continue to be used without MRT being introduced. CO2 emission factor per person-kilometer and travel distance corresponding to access/egress zone are conservatively set to the lower limit of 95% confidence interval, and existing transport modes are assumed to achieve a 1% fuel consumption improvement annually.

The boundary covers (a) MRT zone (MRT station to MRT station) and (b) access/egress zones (departure point to MRT station, MRT station to destination).
Calculation Method OptionsTwo methods are available for calculation:
Option
CO2emission factor
(Reference scenario)
Access/egress zone
(1)
Default Default
(2)
Questionnaire survey after start of MRT operationsQuestionnaire survey after start of MRT operations

(1) A simplified option that requires monitoring of only the number of MRT passengers between stations and electricity consumption. Emission reductions are low, compared to option (2).
(2) An option used to calculate emission reductions accurately. Although monitoring burden is high due to the implementation of a questionnaire survey, emission reductions are high.
Default Values set in MethodologyThe applied default /project-specific values, and the basis for application are shown in the table below.
Default /project -specific value
Parameters
Basis for parameter application
Default CO2 emission factor of fuel j Based on published figures from IPCC Guideline 2006 and other documents
Default Fuel consumption improvement factorFuel consumption is determined by a number of factors. The setting of this factor was focused on technical aspects as improvement proceeds rapidly in vehicle technology.
Default CO2 emission factor of grid power Based on published figures from MONRE
(transmission end)
Default Transmission and distribution loss in grid powerBased on World Bank data
Project -specific value CO2 emission factor of transport modes that could be used by MRT passengers in the absence of MRT ∑ (Travel distance of respondent i / Fuel consumption of transport mode which respondent i will use in the absence of MRT / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ŚCO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance of respondent i)
Project -specific value Induced ratio for distance category xRatio of induced trips to total trips of residents living along MRT lines who will use MRT (total of shifted trips and induced trips)
Project -specific value CO2 emission factor of transport modes used in access/egress zones∑ Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i / Fuel consumption of the transport mode which respondent i will use in access/egress zone / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ŚCO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i )
Project -specific value Distance between Station m and Station n [km]Line plan for MRT Lines 1 and 2
Project -specific value Correction factor for passenger's travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in reference scenarioRatio of virtual access/egress distance to station-to-station distance in daily trips of residents living along MRT lines before shift to MRT
Project -specific valueCorrection factor for passenger's travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in project scenarioRatio of access/egress distance to station-to-station distance in daily trips of residents living along MRT lines after shift to MRT
Monitoring MethodThe following shows the items, methods, and frequencies of monitoring under calculation option (1):
Items
Monitoring method
Monitoring frequency
Number of passengers between Station m and Station n [person/yr] Data recording IC cards Continuous (Totalization: at least one a year)
Estimate based on fare revenues and number of passengers using a stationContinuous (Totalization: at least one a year)
Electricity consumption by MRT [MWh/yr]Electricity purchase slipAt every issue of purchase slip
(Totalization: at least one a year)

In calculation option (2), a questionnaire survey is conducted once a year, in addition to option (1), on MRT passengers after the start of MRT operation with respect to the following matters:
  • Whole travel distance from origin to destination in the reference scenario (in the absence of MRT)
  • Fuel consumption of transport modes in the reference scenario (in the absence of MRT)
  • Number of accompanying persons using transport modes in the reference scenario (in the absence of MRT)
  • Whole travel distance from origin to destination when MRT is used
  • Travel distance in access/egress zones when MRT is used
  • Fuel consumption of transport modes in access/egress zones when MRT is used
  • Number of accompanying persons using transport modes in access/egress zones
GHG Emissions and its ReductionsThe following shows estimated emission reductions achieved by Hanoi Lines 1 and 2, Ho Chi Minh Line 1, and Jakarta North-South Line.(unit:tCO2)
Option
Line
Reference emissions
Project emissions
Emission reductions
Op.1Hanoi Line 1
92,466
54,199
38,267
Hanoi Line 2
69,434
27,855
41,579
Ho Chi Minh Line 1
144,669
55,990
88,678
Jakarta North-South Line
88,973
68,565
20,408
Method of VerificationIn option 1, the verification items are composed of (a) distance between stations (identification of the technique used to obtain the results), (b) number of passengers between stations (reliability verification of IC cards), and (c) electricity consumption by MRT (verification of whether electricity is consumed wastefully). In option 2, it is required, in addition to option 1, to check entered values against those in the original questionnaire form, for the purpose of registering information obtained from individual passengers in the questionnaire survey. Abnormal values contained in the questionnaire survey results, problems with the questionnaire survey technique, and matters that need more attention would be solved if an appropriate methodology is determined. Then, there is no need to formulate specific techniques for each project.
Environmental ImpactsDespite potential risk in this project of smoke and noise from construction work or vibration or any other nuisance from MRT operation, the project will be effective because it will provide such benefits as air pollutant reductions as the result of reduced use of road-based transport systems, in addition to contribution to sustainable development of the host countries.
Financial PlanAbout 80 percent of the investments in each of the four MRT lines under this project will be financed by ODA yen loans. Fares, a major source of revenues in railway operation, are currently being addressed by JICA as part of its technical cooperation extended to the three Vietnamese project operators.
Promotion of Japanese TechnologyJapan has decided to extend ODA yen loans for the MRT lines covered by this project, subject to Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP), under which at least 30% of the loan must be used to purchase equipment and services from Japan. With this, Japanese products based on its advantageous manufacturing technology and operation know-how are expected to be introduced, including railway vehicles, E&M technologies (e.g. signaling, communication, electrification, especially automatic fare collection units).
Sustainable Development in Host CountryPublic transport systems are yet to be developed in the three cities, which mostly rely on automobiles. In addition, populations are growing in the cities. For these reasons, MRT will contribute to sustainable development by reducing air pollution and traffic congestion.

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