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Reports of New Mechanisms Feasibility Studies: FY2011

Title of Feasibility Study (FS)New Mechanism Feasibility Study for Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Systems in Jakarta, Indonesia, and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
FYFY 2011
Main Implementing EntityMitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
FS PartnersMarubeni Corporation, PT. Indokoei International, Transport Development and Strategy Institute(TDSI), JICA
Location of Project ActivityIndonesia and Viet Nam
Category of Project ActivityTransportation
Summary of FS ReportPDF (593KB)
Description of Project/ ActivityThe project will introduce mass rapid transit (MRT) systems in the three cities of Jakarta, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, which have relied on motorbikes, automobiles, and buses for their urban transport. By promoting a modal shift, the project is expected to contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions from existing travel modes.
This study aimed to estimate emissions reduction and establish MRV methods for the project.
Reference Scenario and Project/ Activity BoundaryBAU is considered as reference scenario for the following reasons: a) Introduction of MRT requires huge amount of initial investment while profitability is generally low; b) as MRT is founded on advanced technology, it is difficult for the host country alone to introduce MRT.
As for the boundary, the three options are considered, as follows: (1)MRT, (2) MRT + access/egress traffic, (3) MRT + access/egress traffic + traffic volume on nearby roads. The GHG emissions and reductions for each MRT line in this study are estimated under the conditions of Option (1).
Monitoring Methods and PlanIt is important to consider their feasibility within the host countries. On the other hand, accuracy and reliability must also be maintained.
The key parameters to estimate emissions reduction are traffic volume (PKM) and modal share of reference scenario. As for traffic volume, three options have been proposed: (1) OD table between MRT stations, (2) Passenger survey, (3) Estimation from existing PT surveys. As for modal share, three options have been proposed: (1) Estimation from existing PT surveys, (2) Passenger survey, (3) Traffic volume surveys. The choice of options depends on a ticket system employed in the project and/or the availability of existing surveys. On the other hand, the accuracy of each option needs to be further evaluated.
GHG Emissions and Reductions
(Unit: tCO2/yr)
Reference
Project
Reduction
Hanoi Line1
144,138
30,473
113,664
Hanoi Line2
135,016
30,147
104,869
HCMC Line1
135,925
21,440
114,485
Jakarta
North-South Line
175,535
59,967
115,569
MRV System for GHG ReductionsIn principle, an MRV system should ideally minimize burden on the host country while simultaneously guaranteeing a required level of reliability.

Measurement: Since the estimation of traffic volume of reference scenario has a major impact on the amount of emissions reduction, the accuracy of estimation should be carefully reviewed whichever option -- (1) OD table between MRT stations, (2) Passenger survey, (3) Estimation from existing PT surveys -- is selected.
Reporting: Periodic reporting may be required by both governments of host country and Japan. Relevant procedures, including a reporting format, should be prepared.
Verification: Pre-project evaluation will, in accordance with the methodology adopted, check the project’s eligibility under the BOCM and the validity of the monitoring methods. Post-project evaluation will confirm that monitoring and calculations conform to the approved methodology. Assuming local institution within the host country will conduct verification, Japan would need to provide assistance in terms of capacity building.
Analysis of Environmental, Socioeconomic and other Impacts (including Securement of Environmental Integrity)Environment impact assessment (EIA) has been written into law in both host countries. The EIA for each MRT line has been completed and approved by the central and local governments. The project’s environmental positive impacts would be reduction in air pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM). On the other hand, the project’s environmental negative impacts are emissions of smoke and noise from the construction works, or vibration arising from MRT operation. Countermeasures have been implemented so that no major concerns exist in implementing the project in terms of environmental integrity.
Financial PlanningEach MRT line requires initial investment of approx. 140 – 250 billion Japanese yen. In each case, approx. 80% of the required costs will be procured through Japanese yen loans.
Introduction of Japanese TechnologyWhen introducing an MRT system, tenders are commonly made for individual scopes, such as (1) civil engineering works, (2) rolling stock, and (3) E&M. Of these, Japan has the highest level of technology and safety in the world of (2) rolling stock as well as signal systems and ticket vending machines, which are included in (3) E&M. Because the Japanese yen loans are conditional upon fulfillment of the conditions, which require 30% or more of the loans are allotted for use of equipment, materials, and services originating in Japan, it is highly likely that Japanese technology would be introduced.
"Co-benefits"
(i.e. Improvement of Local Environmental Problems)
The Manual for Quantitative Evaluation of the Co-Benefits Approach recommends assessment of emission reductions of NOx among other air pollutants for this project.
The emissions reduction of NOx from each MRT line was calculated by multiplying distance traveled by mode of transport [km] by NOx emission factor by mode of transport [gNOx/km].and estimated to be approx. 503 - 667 tNO2/year.
Contribution to Sustainable Development in Host CountryIn both countries of this study, public transportation is underdeveloped, dependence on automotive transport is high, and urban population is rapidly growing. As a result, the existing transport systems will make sustainable development difficult. Therefore, building an efficient transportation system by introducing mass transit system is essential for realizing sustainable development. The benefits of introduction of MRT may include:
  • Reduction in economic loss by reducing the time required for travel
  • Reduction in traffic accidents
  • Reduction in vehicle operating costs by reducing traffic congestion
  • Countermeasures against the increasing traffic demand
  • Reduction in air pollutants

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