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Reports of New Mechanisms Feasibility Studies: FY2010

Title of Feasibility Study (FS)Feasibility Study on NAMA in the Transport Sector of Laos
FYFY 2010
Main Implementing EntityMitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd.
FS Partner(s)
  • Ministry of Public Works and Transport (MPWT)
  • Water Resources and Environment Administration (WREA)
  • Sukkaseum Road and Bridge Architect Survey Design CO., Ltd.
  • Climate Consulting, LLC.
  • PTV Support Center Japan Co., Ltd
Location of Project ActivityLao PDR (Vientiane)
Category of Project ActivityTransportation
Summary of FS ReportPDF (322KB)
Description of Project(s)/Activity(ies)Economic growth of Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR or Laos) in recent years accompanied by rapid increase of traffic volume in the capital city of Vientiane has led to concerns over traffic congestion, increase in traffic accidents and air pollution. To address various issues arising from foreseen traffic congestion, the Lao government has developed EST (Environmentally Sustainable Transport) Strategy as well as Master Plan on Comprehensive Urban Transport of Vientiane (Master Plan) to support bringing EST into reality. The Master Plan was developed with assistance from JICA and entails three basic plans consisting of 1) road network development plan, 2) public transport development plan) and 3) transport management plan. Targeting the Master Plan as a case study, the Feasibility Study (The Study) discusses the feasibility of the case study as an activity within NAMA through investigating GHG emissions reduction effect and MRV feasibility among other aspects.
Reference ScenarioThe reference scenario is BAU, which refers to emissions that reflect historical changes of transport activities up to the NAMA start. In many developing countries including Laos, periodic data collection on traffic volume and transport conditions are not available. In the case study, it is deemed desirable to conduct surveys in addition to the traffic volume survey of 2007 to grasp changes in historical trend.
Monitoring PlanMonitoring consists mainly of monitoring for adjusting reference emissions and monitoring of project emissions. It is desirable that transport activities are monitored by regular implementation of OD and traffic surveys as well as measurement of vehicle emission factors. However, these actions require costs and technical know-how, therefore, it is important that financial and technical assistance are provided from industrialized countries as part of NAMA for the development of organizational monitoring structure including monitoring method and QA/QC procedure as well as capacity building.
Estimation of GHG Emission ReductionsApproximately 370,000 tons CO2(2013-2020)
MRV Method
(*MRV = Measurement, Reporting, and Verification)
Although MRV has become a hot issue as it concerns ways in which transparency is secured for mitigation actions of developing countries, details are not yet clear. A guideline with more specifics is planned to be published by the UN. Factors of MRV studied are summarized below.
  • Measurement (M)
    Based on the bottom-up approach which is capable of properly evaluating measures on traffic volume and traffic flow, emissions in reference scenario as well as project scenario are quantified using transport activity (vehicle-km traveled by vehicle type) and emission factor by vehicle type and speed.
    The traffic volume in the reference scenario is pre-determined using traffic demand forecasting and will later be adjusted based on comparison with monitored traffic volume and travel speed. For project emissions, it is desirable to monitor by conducting traffic volume survey and measuring vehicle emission factors, however, the scope and frequency of such monitoring need to be further considered depending on the level assistance from industrialized countries.
  • Reporting (R)
    It is deemed appropriate that pre-project reporting is conducted in a form of document, such as CDM-PDD while post-project reporting is conducted by submitting a monitoring report containing monitoring outcome.
  • Verification (V)
    Verification contains factors of both validation and verification of CDM and it is desirable to conduct pre-project and post-project verification. Regarding international MRV in particular, detailed discussion is necessary for the appropriate type of organization to conduct verification.
    When transport demand forecast modeling is utilized as in the case study, verification of modeling accuracy, standardization and transparency improvement of calculation process and standardization of verification process of modeling are important.
Environmental Impact AnalysisInitial Environmental Examination (IEE) has been carried out for the Master Plan in which environmental impact assessment (EIA) and mitigation measures of impacts are discussed. As far as road widening and new road building are concerned, site acquisition and removal of residents that lead to impacts on nature and social environment are foreseen. EIA is planned for such projects.
(i.e. Improvement of Local Environmental Problems)
Through reduction of vehicle transport activities, air quality improvement by reduction in air pollutants included in the exhaust gas, such as NOx is expected. In accordance with “Co-benefit Quantification Manual”, quantitative analysis for NOx has been conducted for air quality improvement co-benefit of vehicle emission reduction.
As in the calculation of CO2 emission, quantification is carried out based on transport activity (vehicle-km traveled by vehicle type) and emission factor by vehicle type and speed. As a result, the emissions reduction amounts to 560 tons of NOx as of 2025(based on the project period of the Master Plan).
Contribution to Sustainable Development in Host CountryIssues arising from transport are not only limited to environmental problems, such as GHG emission and air pollution, but can also extend to socioeconomic problems including economic loss from noise and traffic congestion and inefficient use of energy. In many Asian countries, in addition to the concerns over the lacks of vehicle regulations, suitable infrastructure and effective policy instruments, the problem is exacerbated by escalating traffic volume and urbanization. Particularly in the transport sector projects, it is often the case that benefits other than those related to climate change are far greater. Therefore, it is desirable that benefits brought by achieving fundamental objectives of transport infrastructure and public transport system development are duly considered in NAMA.

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